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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.