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A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.